The most recent publication of the University of Memphis Poverty Fact Sheet seemed rushed. And there remains significant questions with some stunning underlying statistics that drove the change, like a single year decrease of 38K Memphis Blacks in poverty. Do what ?!?!

Recent reporting by the UofM partner, in the Daily Memphian, cited greatly improved poverty statistics forthcoming in the now released Poverty Fact Sheet. This coincided with further local reporting of a new UofM / Greater Memphis Chamber partnership. The challenge with such reporting, without deeper analysis, is that it may unfortunately protect the directional status quo of locally deficient economic development efforts. 

Used widely, the Poverty Fact Sheet is a a healthy local innovation by Dr. Elena Delavega of the University of Memphis. Delavega first produced the Fact Sheet in 2012, prior to the 2016 installment of the new largely local corporate UofM Board of Trustees. 

Seemingly rushed, with barely released Census estimates, the math in the Daily Memphian article, pertaining to City of Memphis poverty statistics, made no sense and social media erupted. The article stated a 21.9% improvement in the City of Memphis poverty rate with subgroup percentages not supporting the overall increase.

Folks naturally had questions, regarding a drastically improved poverty rate with no great inflow of new jobs or meaningful uptick in average wages (BLS) and virtually flat local tax revenues Pre-COVID.

Again, without the visionary innovation of the Poverty Fact Sheet by Dr. Delavega, this blog would not be happening nor would many local conversations regarding poverty. But the drastic improvement in the poverty rate, as mostly stagnant conditions persist, led this blog to search for answers.

And the answers are in the United States Census data that Delavega uses for the Poverty Fact Sheet. At the same time, this blog could not find agreement between the published Census data and the population data in the Delavega Poverty Fact Sheet for the City of Memphis, Shelby County and MSA. Perhaps there is a rationale for this discrepancy.

On the other hand, the poverty rates from the Census data, as contained in this blog and the Poverty Fact Sheet, match up. With that stated, could  Dr. Delavega, please provide the population figures used to calculate the poverty rates to this blog ? Let’s see what is in the data:

Memphis Poverty Data

The below values are taken directly from the 2018-19 Census tables. The percentages are externally calculated values from the Census provided data.

Based on the United States Census Data above and shaded in black, drastic improvement in the City of Memphis Black poverty rate, drove rate improvement for all of the City of Memphis, County and Tri-State MSA region. Primary findings from the data are above and summarized below:

In 2019, Blacks in poverty in the City of Memphis decreased by a whopping 37,749 from 141,980 to 104,231. The Black poverty rate in Memphis decreased by 22.7% from 33.8% to 26.1%. The 37,749 drop dwarfed next in line in Philadelphia, which had an 18K decrease in Black poverty and has about a 50% larger Black population than Memphis. The drastically lower Black poverty population is the numerator in calculating the percentage poverty rate. 

From 2010 to 2019, the 2019 38K City of Memphis decrease in Black poverty, dwarfed all cities with large Black populations. Based on cities with at least 100K in Black population and 30% Black, the next greatest decrease, was again The City of Philadelphia in 2017 at 22.6K and Chicago at 20.4K in 2018. In fact, the 2019 City of Memphis decrease of 38K dwarfed even the entire Philadelphia MSA at 27.5K which has a Black population 3 times the size of Memphis at 1.2M.

In 2019, City of Memphis Black Population decreased by 20,913 or 5%, from 420,403 to 399,490. White population in the City of Memphis increased by 16,078 or 9.1%, from 177,118 to 193,196. The County only shows losing 4,364 in Black population. The lower Black population is the denominator in calculating the poverty rate. 

While the rate decreased for Whites, the actual number of Whites in poverty increased in Memphis by 1,469.

The Hispanic poverty rate increased by 1.1% in Memphis, while falling in the MSA. 

Shelby County Data

The below values are taken directly from the 2018-19 Census tables. The percentages are externally calculated values from the Census provided data.

Again, the Shelby County data, was largely driven by The City of Memphis data. 

Memphis TN-AR-MS MSA Data

The below values are taken directly from the 2018-19 Census tables. The percentages are externally calculated values from the Census provided data.

These are some concluding findings regarding Shelby County and the MSA:

While the Hispanic poverty rate increased for both Memphis and Shelby County, it decreased in the MSA by 7%,  from 23.5% to 21.9% 

After Memphis lost 21K in Black population, Shelby County lost 4,364 and the MSA 2,351. That implies that Blacks moved out of the City of Memphis and remained in the County or in the MSA. 

This above implies that approximately 16.5K Blacks moved out of the City but stayed in the County while another 2K moved into other parts of the MSA outside of Shelby County and 2.5K moved out of the MSA altogether.  

Below are statistics for populations outside of Memphis. 

Shelby Residents (Outside of Memphis)

This table contains externally calculated values derived from the 2018-19 Census Estimates.

Memphis MSA Residents (Outside of Shelby County) 

This table contains externally calculated values derived from the 2018-19 Census Estimates.

Median Income

The below values are taken directly from the 2018-19 Census tables. The percentages are externally calculated values from the Census provided data.

Shelby County (Not In Memphis)

This table contains externally calculated values derived from the 2018-19 Census Estimates.

Memphis MSA (Not In Shelby County)

This table contains externally calculated values derived from the 2018-19 Census Estimates.

Memphis MSA vs Memphis/Shelby Median Household Income

Conclusion 

Drastic changes in calculated rates, of any sort, most often need the underlying values to explain the causes for drastic changes. Without it, taxpayers and policymakers will potentially be misinformed. 

One of the community products of the University of Memphis Carnegie R1 campaign is tanking Shelby County post-secondary completions. This occurs under the local proclamation that workforce development is the #1 priority. 

Total Shelby County post-secondary completions were down by 895 or 7.7% from 11,692 to 10797 year over year in 2019. And that comes as Shelby County is at the bottom of the peer group in post-secondary completions per 1k population. Below percentage average employment gains, can be shown to cost Memphis/Shelby taxpayers $147M since 2010 with recurring annual losses at $32M.

Further, another bi-product of the UofM Carnegie R1 campaign, are local grants for elitist tennis courts and swimming pools. These grants are in addition to the recent taxpayer losing Poplar Plaza PILOT that the UofM co-sponsored. 

A better use than tennis courts and swimming pools of those funds, would have funded $500K per year for wrap around services to support disadvantaged students while accelerating and increasing completion rates in the community college system.

Besides, the City of Memphis provided the land for the tennis courts and there was significant private funding for both tennis courts and swimming pools at the UofM. But runaway elitism won out, while post secondary completions tanked.  

Post Secondary Completion Data

A survey, using the Integrated Post-Secondary Education Data System (IPEDS) was conducted against 14 national and 4 in-state peer communities to include Shelby County in a ranking of 19 total communities. Those communities are listed at the end of this blog. 

Shelby County ranked last in enrollment and completions per 1K population. Additionally, percentage change rankings for each of the communities for 4 years and 1 year were compiled. Shelby County ranked 11 and 17 for completions and enrollment 4 year percentage change. And 19 and 10 for 1 year percentage change for completions and enrollment (above table).

To competitively fuel the talent pipeline for economic development purposes, Shelby County needs to reside near the top of peer rankings and not the bottom for some years to come. 

As far as post-secondary completion award levels percentage change rankings, those statistics are immediately above. 

Conclusion

Without a connected workforce development plan to fuel economic development, the low post-secondary completion rankings are likely to continue, while the same small few, continue to botch the workforce development system. 

Peers Surveyed

Birmingham, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Greensboro, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Johnson City/Tri Cities, Kansas City, Knoxville, Little Rock, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Omaha, St. Louis and Tulsa

Shelby County commercial vitality lags its peers due to an insufficient number of business establishments with employees. In fact, according to census data, to catch below average Birmingham, Memphis would need 4500 new business establishments with employees. 

While the greatest opportunity to increase establishments resides in the Black community, with a gap like 4500, Shelby County cannot be choosy. Sadly, local MWBE programming is of little help for very small locally owned businesses like mine. These are the type of new businesses that are needed to come online to increase the number of local establishments with employees. 

At the same time, local MWBE programming is an elitist sham. Its a true statement, that one can inherit a highly established business, like Duncan Donuts Williams has done, while your mother maintains controlling interest and qualify for local MWBE participation. Or, one can retire as a senior executive from your family owned corporate holding company, as Kathy Buckman Gibson (KBG) did, and start a woman owned business enterprise and qualify for local MWBE participation. Even out of town companies due quite well, in the local business space to even include Canadian companies based in Tennessee. 

In reality, these folks business interests are going to do just fine without help from local MWBE programming. On the other hand, my small LOSB doesn’t even qualify for EDGE’s local business program that disallowed LOSBs in 2016. EDGE just released their latest MWBE propaganda piece, showing massive overperformance. So after years of MWBE programming and such overperformance, why is Shelby County commerce lagging so badly ?

This is Why Its Lagging

The real reason that commerce lags in Shelby County is because local elitists don’t support small business. This condition necessitates the need for government “programming” that is then, not surprisingly, again highjacked by local elitists. The 2011-19 EDGE report provides insufficient detail on what is really happening by not showing the distribution of MWBE receipts. Maybe Commissioner Van Turner, who is Commission MWBE Committee Chair, might want to know what is really going on. Then again, he may not. 

Here is what is happening. Based on a survey of EDGE’s 2016-19 Local Business Program (LBP), 25 of 385 or 6% of the MWBE companies controlled 83% of the receipts. Of the $163M in MWBE receipts from the 2016-19 LBP, the top 25 of 385 companies took down $136M in receipts. The top receipt generator was KBG, with the top 25 companies being highly established local firms with an average business life of 33 years !

And some of the leading MWBE receipt generators are not even based in Shelby County ! See below:

This type of elitist programming is not going to move the needle with a 4500 firm gap to catch the next below average peer of Birmingham. Additionally, one easily can see what happened when EDGE ended LOSB participation in their local business program in 2016. Highly established businesses, just piled into WBEs. See graphical representation below:

Conclusion

The only way to increase commercial vitality is for an all hands on deck support for local small, less established business and startups through increased transactional velocity. The local effort always seems to be on raising capital, business planning advice and expos and not transactions. 

As far as MWBE and LOSB programming, that needs to be prioritized for businesses with the need and startups. Not the type, Epicenter and UMRF are focused on with sights on going public but small businesses that build commercial vitality. And yes, right sizing PILOTs will help as well, as small business depends on public resources for success. 

After all, at least with Shelby County Government, one can be a $100M WBE or MBE company and participate in MWBE. Something is wrong with that and apparently leads to only a few companies dominating MWBE receipts……

Please keep in mind, at one point, the blackboard was a new “technology”. However, with respect to the tech tsunami, “computer” technology will continue to increase into all industry sectors, while soft skills, reading, writing, math and computer technology are all basic skills. 

To that extent, computer technology will evolve and become more industry specific. Given this coming technological specialization, regional economic development efforts will need to ride the tech tsunami through industry specialization. Agriculture or AgTech in Memphis is an example of a qualified economic development industry growth target.

From a talent pipeline development standpoint, as a common language staple, industrial occupational demand should drive educational programming and academically aligned career planning for ALL students. Common language communication between professionally diverse stakeholders, as informed by data, is the bedrock that supports regional workforce development implementation.

Unlike other areas of the country that are struggling with an aging workforce, Memphis has an economic development asset in its youthful population when compared to municipal peers. Unfortunately, this economic asset has been systemically ignored in Memphis, through disconnected workforce development programming while not prioritizing the community college system.

As communities throughout the country prioritize their local community college system to accelerate and increase post-secondary completion rates, Memphis instead, has prioritized its 4 yr University of Memphis (UofM) public university.

Evidence of this comes in the form of local appropriations for UofM tennis courts and swimming pools, while the UofM partners with the local EDGE industrial development board and advocates for taxpayer losing tax abatements. These actions negatively impact local educational funding and come after the 2016 installation of a local corporate UofM Board of Trustees. 

Sadly, this is a strategic economic development nightmare and miscalculation of MAMMOTH proportion. As a result, post-secondary completions fell in Shelby County by 827 or 7% in 2019. This reveals that Memphis is not strategically leveraging a key economic development asset in its youthful population. And this decline in completions is not good when Shelby County resides at the bottom of their peer group in post-secondary completions per 1K population.

Conclusion and Solution

So, an overall solution to riding the tech tsunami, is a demand and data driven curriculum, that informs common language supported career planning and skill development in the academic curriculum.

Based on regional occupational demand data, the curriculum naturally promotes alternatives to 4 yr degrees to accelerate and increase post-secondary completion rates. This promotion will better satisfy labor market demand as shown in the above “Success in the New Economy” video. Watch for the 1:2:7 ratio in the above video.

And finally, funding wrap around services for disadvantaged students should be prioritized to help increase completion rates as opposed to university tennis courts and swimming pools. The former alternatives would further promote career pathways that include 4 yr degrees and beyond as part of a lifelong learning continuum.

Robot Rudd doesn’t know what taxpayer justice or corporate elitism is. He’s just a robot for the corporate elitist University of Memphis Board of Bullies (Trustees). Another systemic racism initiative, just won’t work.

Its sad, but seemingly by design, just about every question in Memphis, divides the taxpaying public along racial lines, while protecting, through ignorance, runaway corporate elitism. 

Nothing, other than taxpayer justice, that confronts corporate elitism will work for a majority Black Memphis community in need. Its the very type of corporate elitism that the UofM participates in with $3M local grants for tennis courts while advocating for the taxpayer losing Poplar Plaza abatement award within their university development district.

Another systemic racism initiative, is just another elitist trick bag that has been old hat in Memphis for decades. The new initiative, yet again,  boasts of increasing post secondary completion rates just like the Brookings FOCUS plan did a few years back. The failed Brookings Plan was co-chaired by FedEx’s Chief Counsel at the time, Christine Richards.

Prior to the new local Board of Trustees, in the 2015 Spring, Dr. Charles Santo, of the UofM questioned Richards co-chair role at the time, in a paper entitled Economic Development in Memphis. The paper is a diplomatic attempt to ask the question “What in the Hell is Going on with Economic Development?” With regard to Richards, Santo said,

The most concerning component of the power structure is the conflict of interest that results from the plan’s [Brookings FOCUS] intention to lessen our dependence on the logistics industry and having the vice president of FedEx chair the steering committee. 

Today, Santo’s 2015 paper, is interesting reading and for the most part, accurately predicts current imbalances as shown in today’s corporate elitist economic development policy outcomes. In the paper, Santo when on to say, regarding the Brookings FOCUS plan:

The plan contains no specific timelines, deadlines, or deliverables and there are no methods for target setting or performance tracking of implementation.  

But because of the local news and measurement blackout, of the local public-private complex, carried out in many ways by the UofM’s Institute of Public Service Reporting in partnership with the anonymous donor led Daily Memphian, no one knows the Brookings FOCUS Plan was/is a total failure. 

For example, no one knows that 2019 Shelby County post secondary completions dropped by 827 from 11,561 to 10,734, a 7% decrease. That’s not good news, when Shelby County is already at the bottom of the peer group, in post secondary completions, per 1k population.  

At the same time, some good news here. Santo is on the systemic racism community engagement, policy and advocacy task force with Daphane McFerran and Elena Delavega. But, its really not advocacy at the UofM. Its “politically correct” wait until you are formally invited to speak about your research in front of local bodies.

In any event, its more of the same faces with another relabeled initiative. 

Thought Stagnation: Same People and MWBE

The same people and corporations serve on multiple local boards furthering thought stagnation. For example, the UofM Board of Bullies has 3 Board members with direct connections to FedEx, with the same old crew rounding out most of the remaining board seats in First Horizons, International Paper (IP), Sedgwick, Methodist and Baptist. This is the standard lineup of corporations that serve on multiple public private boards, resulting in local thought and growth stagnation. 

Then there is J.W. Gibson and Carolyn Hardy (above), who serve on multiple local boards, participating on the Minority Business task force. For years, Gibson and Hardy have witnessed the local elitist sham of minority women business enterprise (MWBE) programming.

After all, Kathy Buckman Gibson, from one of the wealthiest families in Memphis and owner of KBG Technologies, took down the most EDGE MWBE receipts with $13M from International Paper. Gibson and KBG are the very type that don’t need the help from MWBE.

Further, the overall data shows a trend in long established Memphis businesses and even affluent businesses dominating MWBE receipts. Effectively, the corporate recipients of excessive EDGE PILOTs are trading with those they most likely would trade with in any circumstance.

And as a matter of note, Buckman-Gibson sits on the National Civil Rights Museum Board with IP and IP is part of the University of Memphis Board of Bullies. And the UofM’s Spark’s Memphis Economy project has a formal partnership with EDGE. So why can people not see the connections ? It’s not reported furthering community ignorance !

Here Come’s The Press Sham and More Ignorance

In most cities, the sham of the Memphis press would be a scandal. But its just one of many. As an example and broke by this blog, the recent massive Nike $58M PILOT compliance breech went locally unreported. This nonreporting furthers local corporate elitism making the local press a primary enabler of communitywide ignorance and corporate elitism. 

Status quo Quotis Sanford and David Waters are heading up the systemic racism press effort through the UofM Institute of Public Service Reporting (UMIPSR). The UMIPSR partners with the anonymous donor led Daily Memphian (DM) for investigative journalism. And additionally, the DM and UMIPSR are entering into a partnership on UofM radio. This is in addition to the DM’s, Behind the Headlines, that leverages public broadcasting. 

Collectively, the UofM and anonymous donor led Daily Memphian are fully leveraging public funding to cost effectively control the local narrative that amplifies systemic racism while muffling any discussion of the very corporate elitism that feeds on a majority Black community in need. 

One would think other competitive journalistic outlets would respond with more investigation of the corporate elitist establishment. But not so fast. As much as anything, the non-investigative press enables communitywide ignorance while runaway corporate elitism persists in a Memphis community in need.

Conclusion

The elitist and racially diverse public private complex feels entitled to violate and feed, unchecked, on a Memphis majority Black community in need. Without competitive and transformational checks and balances, the design is set for a trajectory of stagnation and community decline. This is because with persistent runway elitism and without taxpayer justice, there will be no social justice. So much for another systemic racism initiative.

The architects of the former in Fred Smith and Pitt Hyde would never step into the arena to debate the cultural outcomes of their 20 yr public private complex. And this comes after Smith’s favorable talk of Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena”. Nor would they allow their bureaucratic twerps in harm’s way.

This is because, the bullies in Smith and Hyde know, with certainty, that they would be spanked…..